Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 16.596380 19.031432 21.881633 25.512002 30.084431 35.753593 4.348252e+01
2025-02-16 13.892105 16.933275 20.842590 26.399018 34.388248 45.989127 6.527563e+01
2025-02-23 12.095858 15.303937 19.677318 26.361119 36.912550 54.198735 8.821140e+01
2025-03-02 10.821833 14.077507 18.717957 26.227029 39.032687 62.363232 1.163972e+02
2025-03-09 9.967076 13.278123 18.184169 26.541373 41.862292 72.882149 1.587461e+02
2025-03-16 9.007374 12.190972 17.032795 25.577753 42.072173 78.221064 1.940818e+02
2025-03-23 8.402141 11.559341 16.493522 25.536336 44.009405 88.359730 2.594121e+02
2025-03-30 7.686873 10.683643 15.447897 24.392580 43.357553 91.821854 3.065587e+02
2025-04-06 7.027103 9.838687 14.364303 23.012728 41.866031 92.416919 3.436008e+02
2025-04-13 6.503679 9.171033 13.516735 21.967481 40.908936 94.266864 3.949729e+02
2025-04-20 6.626226 9.551633 14.500583 24.672873 49.650405 133.230126 9.285513e+02
2025-04-27 6.469558 9.453650 14.622324 25.631555 54.368341 163.351547 1.882770e+03
2025-05-04 6.020709 8.847125 13.790655 24.478871 53.120251 168.060202 2.575600e+03
2025-05-11 5.854316 8.714147 13.830408 25.287465 57.993989 209.548912 8.857383e+03
2025-05-18 5.606376 8.418514 13.527928 25.253091 60.279954 241.586730 4.275548e+04
2025-05-25 5.371810 8.129257 13.209012 25.127022 62.259804 276.585875 2.407352e+07
2025-06-01 5.200640 7.940975 13.070618 25.422403 65.905813 334.781569 NaN
2025-06-08 4.927428 7.550572 12.492261 24.516613 64.755148 348.792429 NaN
2025-06-15 4.756976 7.338304 12.260198 24.477662 67.044750 407.261938 NaN
2025-06-22 4.505532 6.963243 11.665075 23.401288 64.759968 407.663597 NaN
2025-06-29 4.249959 6.569844 11.009942 22.100929 61.244518 387.372740 NaN
2025-07-06 4.037306 6.248088 10.487932 21.114551 58.881532 380.818399 NaN
2025-07-13 4.137741 6.515350 11.221277 23.665192 73.241429 717.690177 NaN